By Justice Alfred Mavedzenge
- Introduction
Bedevilled by a persistent socio-economic crisis, and with no immediate solution in sight, as Zimbabweans we are justified to envy others who appear to have succeeded to turn around their fortunes. A few years back, we were envious of the Zambians when they succeeded to dislodge the dictatorship of (now former) President Edgar Lungu by electing the then opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema in 2021. In fact we have become envious of any country which goes through a leadership change regardless of whether the change is progressive or retrogressive. For instance, last year, we celebrated a military coup in Gabon, when then President Ali Bongo was toppled by a military junta, even though we know very well that military coups rarely result in the resolution of a governance crisis.
At the moment our attention is on Senegal where citizens have succeeded to stop their president from seeking a third term. In addition, they succeeded to elect a youthful opposition candidate (Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye) as their president. These are aspirations shared by many Zimbabweans given the legitimate suspicion that President Emmerson Mnangagwa may be tempted to seek a third term and or postpone the next (2028) elections to 2030.
It is a positive thing that, as a people, we are interested in how others are achieving change in their countries. Culturally, that is our nurture. I am reminded of one of our indigenous proverbs which says “kugara nhaka huona dzavamwe” which means: in order to achieve our aspirations we must learn from others. However, the biggest question is whether we are learning the right lessons? What are some of the lessons which can be drawn from recent events in Senegal? Is there any basis to learn anything from Senegal?
2. Is there basis for Zimbabweans to try and learn from Senegal?
2.1 Repressive political conditions
Mr Macky Sall became the President of Senegal after winning the 2012 elections. He became the 4th President of the Republic since Senegal’s political independence from France in 1960. Unlike Zimbabwe, Senegal has for a long time been perceived as a fairly successful democracy. However, in the past 5 years, Senegal backslided into an autocracy with some significant similarities to Zimbabwe. A recent survey by Afro barometer shows that more than 50% of the Senegalese respondents felt that the country had been sliding into autocracy in the last 5 years. These sentiments were largely because of increased persecution of opposition leaders by the Senegalese state, clamping down of independent media (including the closure of independent broadcasting stations), internet shutdowns and crackdown against peaceful protests. According to Amnesty International, about 60 people were killed by security agents as part of the state’s crackdown against peaceful protests between March 2021 and February 2024.
Under former President Macky Sall’s government, the then popular opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was constantly subjected to arbitrary arrests, detention and was restricted from engaging in legitimate political activities. In 2023, Sonko’s political party (PASTEF) was dissolved by the State on allegations of having incited an insurrection.
Sonko was indicted on various criminal charges including undermining state security, disseminating false news and theft. He was subsequently disqualified from contesting in any future elections. Similarly in Zimbabwe, opposition leaders and activists face such persecution as has been witnessed in Senegal. Although the Zimbabwean government has not legally banned the main opposition party (as was done in Senegal), the State has capitalised on the weaknesses of the main opposition party (Citizen Coalition for Change) to decimate it, forcing its leader Nelson Chamisa to quit.
2.2 Attempts by the incumbent to seek a third term
Former President Macky Sall of Senegal attempted to run for a third term, notwithstanding restrictions imposed by the Senegalese Constitution. In a similar fashion to what is happening in Zimbabwe where President Mnangagwa’s supporters are urging him to seek a third term in violation of the Zimbabwean Constitution, former President Macky Sall’s supporters publicly urged him to seek a third term. He never gave Senegalese a clear, unequivocal response when he was initially asked whether or not he was going to seek a third term. Similarly, until recently when he promised that his government will not change the Constitution, President Mnangagwa and ZANU PF have been coy about the third term bid.
3. Recent events in Senegal
In 2023, former President Macky Sall was forced to abandon his third term aspirations when he made a public announcement in which he declared that he would not contest in the 2024 elections. Earlier in 2012, Senegalese citizens had successfully stopped another of their Presidents (Abdoulaye Wade) from seeking a third term, when they united and overwhelmingly voted for Macky Sall, the then-opposition candidate.
After abandoning his third term bid, former President Macky Sall attempted to prolong his tenure by postponing elections. Presumably, this was part of his attempt to buy more time in order to identify a preferred successor whom he could support in the elections. In Senegal, candidates for presidential elections are approved by the Constitutional Council. President Macky Sall’s preferred candidate was not approved by the Constitutional Council on account of failure to meet one of the eligibility requirements.
Using its majority in Parliament, former President Macky Sall’s party attempted to postpone the elections. On Monday 5 February 2024, Parliament passed a bill postponing the presidential election from February 2024 (as originally scheduled) to December 2024. This sparked widespread protests which resulted in several people being killed by the state security agents. The postponement of the elections was challenged through a petition filed before the Constitutional Council. The Constitutional Council ruled in favour of the petition, holding that the postponement was unconstitutional. It ordered the elections to be held as soon as is possible, without specifying a date. A follow up application was filed before the Constitutional Council requesting the Council to clarify the date for elections, and the Council ruled that the elections must be held prior to the end of March 2024 as per the constitutional deadline.
The election was subsequently held on 25 March 2024 in compliance with the ruling of the Constitutional Council and the Constitution. Mr Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye won the elections by 54,28%, defeating the candidate of the then ruling coalition Amadou Ba who garnered 35.79% of the total votes. Mr Bassirou Diomaye Faye has since taken over the reigns from Mr Macky Sall, as the President of the Republic. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has appointed Ousmane Sonko as his Prime Minister. As mentioned above, prior to the March election Ousmane Sonko was the most popular opposition leader who, however, had been disqualified from contesting in the elections, and he chose to endorse his colleague Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
The success of the Senegalese people to stop former President Macky Sall from seeking a third term, and their success to elect a youthful opposition leader as the President are attributable to the leadership capacity of the then opposition. The quality of the leadership they had in the opposition made a huge difference.
4. Collective and self-less leadership
For quite some time, the face of the Senegalese opposition movement was Ousmane Sonko. However, Sonko did not concentrate power around himself as we have seen being done by Zimbabwean opposition leaders. Instead, Sonko collaborated with several others to build a broad based movement in pursuit of a common political agenda. When the State targeted Sonko and his party with harassment, the opposition movement survived the onslaught. For example, when Sonko and his party were disqualified from elections, the opposition movement remained intact and strong to the extent that it still managed to stop Macky Sall from seeking a third term and it succeeded to field a different candidate (Faye) and still win the elections. Upon being disqualified from contesting in the elections, Sonko selflessly “passed the ball” to Faye by way of endorsing Faye’s candidature in the March 2024 elections. The endorsement consolidated (rather than split) the opposition vote, and this contributed immensely towards Faye’s victory over the ruling party’s candidate.
In her published work “Democracy in Senegal: A Case Study of Democratic Success in
Africa” Rachael Lambert attributes the success of democracy in Senegal to the “ability of different social leaders to find common ground”. This view is widely held by other scholars including John Esposito, Tamara Sonn and John Voll who wrote “Senegal: Democracy and the Postcolonial State”-a book chapter which examines the historical evolution of politics in Senegal. The culture of the Senegalese opposition to find common ground, at critical moments was recently exemplified by Sonko and Faye in the recent elections. Is this something possible to achieve in Zimbabwe under the current crop of leadership of the opposition?
Unlike Senegal’s Sonko who could work with Faye, Nelson Chamisa has shown that he is highly insecure with the idea of working side by side with other competent leaders. Unlike Sonko and Faye who were open to criticism, Nelson Chamisa perceives those who are critical of his leadership style as jealousy of him or ZANU PF enablers. Sadly, it is a view also shared by several Zimbabweans in the opposition. As a result, Nelson Chamisa has run his parties as if they are religious cults. The results have been quite costly not only for him but for Zimbabwe’s struggle for democratic breakthrough. For instance, even though the Senegalese government banned the then main opposition party (PASTEF) led by Sonko, they did not succeed to decimate the opposition. In Zimbabwe, the dismantling of Nelson Chamisa’s Citizen Coalition for Change has automatically led to the death of the opposition and the ruling party ZANU PF is now enjoying a free reign. In this sense, the difference between Senegal and Zimbabwe is that in Zimbabwe Chamisa became the opposition while in Senegal, Ousmane Sonko built an opposition movement.
5. Clear ideological grounding
Faye and Sonko mobilised the Senegalese people around a clear ideological stand point. They projected themselves as de-colonial leaders who are committed towards ending the French neo-colonial exploitation of Senegal. This allowed them to establish alliances with various interest groups within Senegal and in the diaspora.
The Zimbabwean opposition leadership space has persistently been occupied by personalities who are demagogues but with unclear ideological inclination, and as a result they have failed to establish the necessary alliances with critical stakeholders within and outside of Zimbabwe. For instance, even though he had a trade union background, the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was not ideologically articulate and as a result he was very much untrusted amongst African leaders and some of the critical stakeholders within the Zimbabwean body politic. Consequently, Morgan Tsvangirai succeeded to galvanise support within the opposition circles but was largely unsuccessful in his efforts to establish alliances with those who traditionally support ZANU PF. However, in 2008 he succeeded to defeat President Robert Mugabe but he could not capture State power due to lack of support from critical domestic and regional leaders, partly because of lack of trust which is attributable to his ideological opaqueness.
The current opposition leader Nelson Chamisa appears to have suffered the safe fate. He confuses religion with ideology. He forgets that, even though God may be in support of his candidature, God is not religious. God still expects his chosen leaders to use their wisdom to articulate a clear vision, and craft a path which those who support them can follow.
6. Courageous opposition leadership
The Senegalese opposition’s success in stopping former President Macky Sall’s third term bid and winning the March 2024 presidential election is attributed to the brave and courageous personality of its leadership. As the leader of the opposition, Ousmane Sonko always led from the front and demonstrated fearlessness. He led peaceful protests in the streets even though he knew he would be arrested and detained. His presence at the protests, alongside other leaders who include now President Faye inspired the Senegalese people to come out and express their disapproval of President Macky Sall’s third term bid, as well as the attempts to postpone elections. In fact, at the time the presidential election was held in March 2024, Mr Faye had just been released from prison after spending 11 months in jail. He had been arrested on charges of threatening state security after he protested against state capture of the judiciary.
In Zimbabwe, the main opposition leader Nelson Chamisa does not lead from the front. He leads from social media handles. When he took over the leadership of the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance in 2018, Nelson Chamisa vowed that he would lead peaceful protests from the front. Since then, he has only participated in one march where he became famous for doing push ups as a symbolic demonstration of courage but nothing further materialised. Some of the opposition leaders, who include Job Sikhala, Jacob Ngarivhume, Makomborero Haruzivishe, Joana Mamombe, Cecilia Chimbiri, Netsai Marova, Obey Sithole and others, engaged in peaceful protests and were detained and ended up in jail for very long periods of time. Job Sikhala, who was Deputy National Chairperson in Chamisa’s party spent 595 days in prison, while youth leader Makomborero Haruzivishe was jailed for a year . Unlike Faye or Sonko in Senegal, Nelson Chamisa did not organise or lead any protest to demand the freedom of his fellow comrades. In fact, he discouraged and distanced himself from groups of opposition supporters who attempted to organise peaceful protests as means of putting pressure on the State to release these leaders. Without leaders who are capable of leading from the front, it is impossible for Zimbabweans to achieve what the Senegalese achieved under the leadership of Sonko and Faye.
7. Conclusion
The approach to opposition politics in Zimbabwe needs a major overhaul. There is a need to transition from building individual oriented groupings to establishing issue based movements. Zimbabweans need to look out for and support leaders who have clear ideological grounding capable of uniting people across the traditional political, social and religious divides. There is a need for opposition leaders who live and practice democratic values of consultation and accountability. Without these values it is impossible to build a movement capable of spearheading a democratic breakthrough.
This article has been written by Justice Alfred Mavedzenge, a constitutional lawyer and Adjunct Senior Lecturer of Public Law at the University of Cape Town. He writes in his personal capacity.